Giants.
The year-round intelligence desk for San Francisco.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
5
Executable
5
archive-backed
Resolved
5
Won
3
Lost
2
Win rate
60.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2509Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=159.8%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=462.1%model50.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2733 |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1613 |
| Drew Gilbert | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3982 |
| Osleivis Basabe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1483 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames | 1+ Hits | 61.1% | 54.1% | +7.0pp | WON |
| Osleivis Basabe | 1+ Hits | 61.5% | 55.3% | +6.2pp | WON |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1+ Hits | 59.8% | 53.7% | +6.1pp | WON |