Cardinals.
The year-round intelligence desk for St. Louis.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
6
Executable
6
archive-backed
Resolved
6
Won
4
Lost
2
Win rate
66.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2194Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=148.9%model0.0%realised
- 50–60%n=252.5%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=364.7%model66.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.2256 |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3153 |
| Bryan Torres | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1028 |
| José Fermín | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1319 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Fermín | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 53.1% | +10.6pp | WON |
| Bryan Torres | 1+ Hits | 67.9% | 57.3% | +10.6pp | WON |
| Everson Pereira | 1+ Hits | 51.4% | 46.5% | +4.9pp | WON |
| Everson Pereira | 1+ Hits | 53.7% | 49.5% | +4.1pp | WON |