Rangers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Texas.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
31
Executable
31
archive-backed
Resolved
31
Won
17
Lost
14
Win rate
54.8%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2606Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=144.8%model100.0%realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=3063.0%model53.3%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 9 | 9 | 5 | 56% | 0.2474 |
| Corey Seager | 7 | 7 | 5 | 71% | 0.2139 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 0.3171 |
| Jake Burger | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3068 |
| Josh Jung | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2159 |
| Danny Jansen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.3049 |
| Joc Pederson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4313 |
| Wyatt Langford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1485 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jung | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 65.6% | -3.9pp | — |
| Danny Jansen | 1+ Hits | 44.8% | 41.2% | +3.6pp | WON |
| Brandon Nimmo | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 61.3% | +2.2pp | WON |
| Jake Burger | 1+ Hits | 62.6% | 60.4% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Brandon Nimmo | 1+ Hits | 64.1% | 62.0% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Corey Seager | 1+ Hits | 64.0% | 62.2% | +1.8pp | WON |
| Wyatt Langford | 1+ Hits | 61.5% | 60.3% | +1.2pp | WON |
| Brandon Nimmo | 1+ Hits | 62.2% | 63.4% | -1.2pp | — |
| Brandon Nimmo | 1+ Hits | 62.7% | 63.7% | -1.0pp | — |
| Ezequiel Duran | 1+ Hits | 65.0% | 64.3% | +0.8pp | WON |