Nationals.
The year-round intelligence desk for Washington.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
10
Executable
10
archive-backed
Resolved
10
Won
7
Lost
3
Win rate
70.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2187Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=158.8%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=963.3%model66.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2194 |
| James Wood | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1394 |
| Brady House | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1529 |
| CJ Abrams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4063 |
| Dylan Crews | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3982 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile | 1+ Hits | 63.2% | 67.5% | -4.3pp | — |
| Brady House | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 61.0% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Daylen Lile | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 62.8% | +1.4pp | WON |
| CJ Abrams | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 64.8% | -1.1pp | — |