Nationals.
The year-round intelligence desk for Washington.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
23
Executable
23
archive-backed
Resolved
23
Won
14
Lost
9
Win rate
60.9%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2332Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=559.2%model20.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1863.2%model72.2%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 6 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 0.1384 |
| Daylen Lile | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 0.2731 |
| Brady House | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1917 |
| CJ Abrams | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3263 |
| Dylan Crews | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3093 |
| Andrés Chaparro | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3487 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1446 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile | 1+ Hits | 63.2% | 67.5% | -4.3pp | — |
| Dylan Crews | 1+ Hits | 62.8% | 66.1% | -3.3pp | — |
| Brady House | 1+ Hits | 66.7% | 63.5% | +3.3pp | WON |
| Daylen Lile | 1+ Hits | 59.6% | 62.3% | -2.8pp | — |
| Brady House | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 61.0% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Daylen Lile | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 62.8% | +1.4pp | WON |
| Daylen Lile | 1+ Hits | 59.4% | 60.5% | -1.1pp | — |
| CJ Abrams | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 64.8% | -1.1pp | — |
| Keibert Ruiz | 1+ Hits | 62.0% | 61.6% | +0.4pp | WON |
| James Wood | 1+ Hits | 65.4% | 65.1% | +0.3pp | WON |