White Sox.
The year-round intelligence desk for Chicago.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
4
Executable
4
archive-backed
Resolved
4
Won
1
Lost
3
Win rate
25.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.3253Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=258.9%model50.0%realised
- 60–70%n=262.6%model0.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1699 |
| Chase Meidroth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4165 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3479 |
| Sam Antonacci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3668 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Montgomery | 1+ Hits | 58.8% | 53.3% | +5.5pp | WON |