White Sox.
The year-round intelligence desk for Chicago.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
7
Executable
7
archive-backed
Resolved
7
Won
5
Lost
2
Win rate
71.4%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2105Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=762.8%model71.4%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Antonacci | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2192 |
| Chase Meidroth | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2674 |
| Miguel Vargas | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1404 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 60.4% | +1.8pp | WON |
| Chase Meidroth | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 63.7% | +1.0pp | WON |
| Sam Antonacci | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 61.2% | +0.2pp | WON |