White Sox.
The year-round intelligence desk for Chicago.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
47
Executable
47
archive-backed
Resolved
47
Won
26
Lost
21
Win rate
55.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1860Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=118.6%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=822.5%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=359.2%model66.7%realised
- 60–70%n=3564.1%model68.6%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Meidroth | 12 | 12 | 7 | 58% | 0.1585 |
| Miguel Vargas | 9 | 9 | 6 | 67% | 0.2307 |
| Sam Antonacci | 9 | 9 | 5 | 56% | 0.2414 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 0.1342 |
| Kyle Teel | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2195 |
| Braden Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.1106 |
| Randal Grichuk | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2836 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0348 |
| Brenton Doyle | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1036 |
| Colson Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0408 |
| Tristan Peters | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1596 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Doyle | 1+ Hits | 67.8% | 61.1% | +6.7pp | WON |
| Braden Montgomery | 1+ Hits | 58.8% | 53.3% | +5.5pp | WON |
| Chase Meidroth | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 57.7% | +5.4pp | WON |
| Chase Meidroth | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 59.2% | +4.6pp | WON |
| Sam Antonacci | 1+ Hits | 66.5% | 62.2% | +4.3pp | WON |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1+ Hits | 59.7% | 55.7% | +4.1pp | WON |
| Sam Antonacci | 1+ Hits | 69.3% | 65.9% | +3.4pp | WON |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1+ Hits | 60.3% | 56.9% | +3.3pp | WON |
| Randal Grichuk | 1+ Hits | 65.3% | 62.0% | +3.3pp | WON |
| Sam Antonacci | 1+ Hits | 68.1% | 64.9% | +3.2pp | WON |