Guardians.
The year-round intelligence desk for Cleveland.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
18
Executable
18
archive-backed
Resolved
18
Won
12
Lost
6
Win rate
66.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2302Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=158.3%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1763.4%model64.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 7 | 7 | 5 | 71% | 0.2123 |
| José Ramírez | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2273 |
| Chase DeLauter | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0.2587 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 1+ Hits | 62.0% | 66.2% | -4.3pp | — |
| José Ramírez | 1+ Hits | 62.8% | 64.6% | -1.8pp | — |
| José Ramírez | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 63.1% | +1.1pp | WON |
| Chase DeLauter | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 64.4% | -0.8pp | — |
| José Ramírez | 1+ Hits | 64.0% | 63.4% | +0.5pp | WON |
| Steven Kwan | 1+ Hits | 64.3% | 64.6% | -0.3pp | — |