Guardians.
The year-round intelligence desk for Cleveland.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
42
Executable
42
archive-backed
Resolved
42
Won
32
Lost
10
Win rate
76.2%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1980Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=158.3%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=4163.4%model75.6%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Ramírez | 13 | 13 | 9 | 69% | 0.2099 |
| Chase DeLauter | 11 | 11 | 7 | 64% | 0.2358 |
| Steven Kwan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 80% | 0.1870 |
| Angel Martínez | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1394 |
| Jo Adell | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1387 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1490 |
| Petey Halpin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1418 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 1+ Hits | 62.0% | 66.2% | -4.3pp | — |
| Chase DeLauter | 1+ Hits | 61.0% | 64.7% | -3.7pp | — |
| José Ramírez | 1+ Hits | 62.0% | 65.2% | -3.2pp | — |
| José Ramírez | 1+ Hits | 62.8% | 64.6% | -1.8pp | — |
| Angel Martínez | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 61.7% | +1.7pp | WON |
| José Ramírez | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 63.1% | +1.1pp | WON |
| Jo Adell | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 63.8% | +0.9pp | WON |
| Chase DeLauter | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 64.4% | -0.8pp | — |
| Angel Martínez | 1+ Hits | 62.3% | 61.5% | +0.7pp | WON |
| Chase DeLauter | 1+ Hits | 61.1% | 61.6% | -0.5pp | — |