Guardians.
The year-round intelligence desk for Cleveland.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
11
Executable
11
archive-backed
Resolved
11
Won
5
Lost
6
Win rate
45.5%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1486Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=118.5%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=322.2%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=555.8%model60.0%realised
- 60–70%n=262.7%model100.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.2118 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.0810 |
| Kahlil Watson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1915 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.2185 |
| Patrick Bailey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1625 |
| Petey Halpin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1325 |
| Travis Bazzana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0510 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petey Halpin | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 57.2% | +6.4pp | WON |
| Brayan Rocchio | 1+ Hits | 61.8% | 56.7% | +5.1pp | WON |
| Kahlil Watson | 1+ Hits | 56.2% | 51.5% | +4.8pp | WON |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1+ Hits | 53.3% | 48.7% | +4.6pp | WON |
| Patrick Bailey | 1+ Hits | 59.7% | 56.3% | +3.4pp | WON |