Rockies.
The year-round intelligence desk for Colorado.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
22
Executable
22
archive-backed
Resolved
21
Won
14
Lost
7
Win rate
66.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2249Voided: 1
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=2164.7%model66.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Norby | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2209 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2030 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1955 |
| Jake McCarthy | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2656 |
| Mickey Moniak | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1428 |
| Kyle Karros | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1242 |
| Brett Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3920 |
| TJ Rumfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4711 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 67.2% | 63.2% | +4.0pp | WON |
| Hunter Goodman | 1+ Hits | 64.1% | 65.3% | -1.2pp | — |
| Connor Norby | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 64.9% | -1.2pp | — |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 61.3% | 60.2% | +1.0pp | WON |
| Mickey Moniak | 1+ Hits | 63.3% | 62.5% | +0.8pp | WON |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 67.7% | 67.1% | +0.6pp | WON |
| Connor Norby | 1+ Hits | 64.6% | 65.1% | -0.4pp | — |
| Connor Norby | 1+ Hits | 67.3% | 67.1% | +0.2pp | WON |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 67.1% | 67.2% | -0.1pp | — |
| Hunter Goodman | 1+ Hits | 64.6% | 64.5% | +0.1pp | WON |