Rockies.
The year-round intelligence desk for Colorado.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
40
Executable
40
archive-backed
Resolved
39
Won
25
Lost
14
Win rate
64.1%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2279Voided: 1
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=3964.2%model64.1%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Carrigg | 9 | 9 | 6 | 67% | 0.2097 |
| Connor Norby | 8 | 8 | 5 | 63% | 0.2304 |
| Hunter Goodman | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1813 |
| Jake McCarthy | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2038 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 0.2882 |
| Mickey Moniak | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2252 |
| Brett Sullivan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3868 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1491 |
| Kyle Karros | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1242 |
| Adael Amador | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4140 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | 1+ Hits | 60.2% | 51.0% | +9.2pp | WON |
| Connor Norby | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 68.6% | -5.5pp | — |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 67.2% | 63.2% | +4.0pp | WON |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 64.7% | -3.5pp | — |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 1+ Hits | 62.6% | 60.4% | +2.2pp | WON |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 65.3% | 63.4% | +1.9pp | WON |
| Cole Carrigg | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 63.2% | -1.8pp | — |
| Jake McCarthy | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 60.1% | +1.5pp | WON |
| Hunter Goodman | 1+ Hits | 64.1% | 65.3% | -1.2pp | — |
| Connor Norby | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 64.9% | -1.2pp | — |