Rockies.
The year-round intelligence desk for Colorado.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
8
Executable
8
archive-backed
Resolved
8
Won
5
Lost
3
Win rate
62.5%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2133Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=125.2%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=255.2%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=561.9%model60.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Rumfield | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.2045 |
| Edouard Julien | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.2374 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1581 |
| Hunter Goodman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3849 |
| Mickey Moniak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1677 |
| Willi Castro | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1447 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Rumfield | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 51.6% | +10.0pp | WON |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 1+ Hits | 60.2% | 51.0% | +9.2pp | WON |
| Mickey Moniak | 1+ Hits | 59.0% | 50.2% | +8.8pp | WON |
| Willi Castro | 1+ Hits | 62.0% | 57.7% | +4.3pp | WON |
| Edouard Julien | 1+ Hits | 51.3% | 47.1% | +4.1pp | WON |