Royals.
The year-round intelligence desk for Kansas City.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
14
Executable
14
archive-backed
Resolved
14
Won
11
Lost
3
Win rate
78.6%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1996Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=159.8%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1362.8%model76.9%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2051 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1313 |
| Carter Jensen | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1490 |
| Michael Massey | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2763 |
| Salvador Perez | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1560 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2743 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Massey | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 66.6% | -3.0pp | — |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 66.2% | -2.7pp | — |
| Michael Massey | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 60.2% | +1.4pp | WON |
| Salvador Perez | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 61.2% | +0.0pp | WON |