Royals.
The year-round intelligence desk for Kansas City.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
3
Executable
3
archive-backed
Resolved
3
Won
1
Lost
2
Win rate
33.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2096Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=124.9%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=267.2%model50.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Collins | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.0859 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4571 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Collins | 1+ Hits | 66.9% | 58.5% | +8.4pp | WON |