Royals.
The year-round intelligence desk for Kansas City.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
4
Executable
4
archive-backed
Resolved
4
Won
0
Lost
4
Win rate
0.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1405Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=210.0%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=149.1%model0.0%realised
- 50–60%n=153.3%model0.0%realised
- 60–70%n=0—model—realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0376 |
| John Rave | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.2407 |
| Kyle Isbel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.2836 |
| Nick Loftin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0000 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Loftin | 4plus_hits | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3pp | — |