Royals.
The year-round intelligence desk for Kansas City.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
31
Executable
31
archive-backed
Resolved
31
Won
21
Lost
10
Win rate
67.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1916Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=210.0%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=149.1%model0.0%realised
- 50–60%n=457.9%model75.0%realised
- 60–70%n=2462.6%model75.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 0.2064 |
| Jac Caglianone | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2204 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 4 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 0.1303 |
| Michael Massey | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2116 |
| Salvador Perez | 4 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 0.1517 |
| John Rave | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2036 |
| Nick Loftin | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.0825 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2743 |
| Kyle Isbel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.2836 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Massey | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 66.6% | -3.0pp | — |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 66.2% | -2.7pp | — |
| Carter Jensen | 1+ Hits | 60.6% | 62.5% | -1.8pp | — |
| Michael Massey | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 60.2% | +1.4pp | WON |
| Carter Jensen | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 64.3% | -1.4pp | — |
| Jac Caglianone | 1+ Hits | 61.0% | 61.6% | -0.6pp | — |
| Nick Loftin | 4plus_hits | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3pp | — |
| Salvador Perez | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 61.2% | +0.0pp | WON |