Dodgers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Los Angeles.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
16
Executable
16
archive-backed
Resolved
16
Won
9
Lost
7
Win rate
56.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2575Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=1663.6%model56.3%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1895 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 0.2762 |
| Teoscar Hernández | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2448 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2508 |
| Andy Pages | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4297 |
| Will Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4018 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 67.0% | -2.8pp | — |
| Mookie Betts | 1+ Hits | 65.2% | 67.5% | -2.2pp | — |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1+ Hits | 61.5% | 63.6% | -2.1pp | — |
| Will Smith | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 65.0% | -1.6pp | — |
| Teoscar Hernández | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 60.4% | +1.3pp | WON |
| Mookie Betts | 1+ Hits | 66.9% | 66.3% | +0.6pp | WON |
| Freddie Freeman | 1+ Hits | 61.3% | 60.8% | +0.5pp | WON |
| Mookie Betts | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 62.5% | +0.3pp | WON |