Dodgers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Los Angeles.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
27
Executable
27
archive-backed
Resolved
27
Won
17
Lost
10
Win rate
63.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2380Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=258.2%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=2563.8%model60.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 0.2758 |
| Mookie Betts | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2273 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1893 |
| Teoscar Hernández | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2154 |
| Andy Pages | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3179 |
| Will Smith | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2704 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1075 |
| Tommy Edman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1860 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages | 1+ Hits | 60.1% | 64.7% | -4.6pp | — |
| Kyle Tucker | 1+ Hits | 67.2% | 64.4% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Freddie Freeman | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 67.0% | -2.8pp | — |
| Mookie Betts | 1+ Hits | 65.2% | 67.5% | -2.2pp | — |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1+ Hits | 61.5% | 63.6% | -2.1pp | — |
| Mookie Betts | 1+ Hits | 64.5% | 66.2% | -1.7pp | — |
| Will Smith | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 65.0% | -1.6pp | — |
| Teoscar Hernández | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 60.4% | +1.3pp | WON |
| Mookie Betts | 1+ Hits | 66.9% | 66.3% | +0.6pp | WON |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1+ Hits | 64.8% | 64.3% | +0.5pp | WON |