Marlins.
The year-round intelligence desk for Miami.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
6
Executable
6
archive-backed
Resolved
6
Won
4
Lost
2
Win rate
66.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2086Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=259.2%model0.0%realised
- 60–70%n=462.9%model100.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Sanoja | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1392 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3575 |
| Jakob Marsee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3423 |
| Kyle Stowers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1400 |
| Otto Lopez | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1334 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 60.3% | +3.2pp | WON |
| Javier Sanoja | 1+ Hits | 62.3% | 60.2% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Jakob Marsee | 1+ Hits | 58.5% | 60.0% | -1.5pp | — |
| Kyle Stowers | 1+ Hits | 62.6% | 61.5% | +1.0pp | WON |
| Javier Sanoja | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 62.2% | +0.8pp | WON |
| Heriberto Hernández | 1+ Hits | 59.8% | 60.4% | -0.6pp | — |