Marlins.
The year-round intelligence desk for Miami.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
9
Executable
9
archive-backed
Resolved
9
Won
2
Lost
7
Win rate
22.2%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2832Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=116.0%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=458.1%model25.0%realised
- 60–70%n=461.0%model25.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteury Ruiz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.3715 |
| Griffin Conine | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1777 |
| Brian Navarreto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3459 |
| Jakob Marsee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3688 |
| Leo Jiménez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3385 |
| Owen Caissie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0256 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine | 1+ Hits | 60.1% | 53.5% | +6.6pp | WON |
| Griffin Conine | 1+ Hits | 55.7% | 50.0% | +5.7pp | WON |