Marlins.
The year-round intelligence desk for Miami.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
18
Executable
18
archive-backed
Resolved
18
Won
5
Lost
13
Win rate
27.8%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2524Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=517.3%model20.0%realised
- 20–30%n=123.6%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=657.9%model50.0%realised
- 60–70%n=661.7%model16.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2682 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.3715 |
| Joe Mack | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.0869 |
| Liam Hicks | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.2844 |
| Brian Navarreto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3459 |
| Jakob Marsee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3688 |
| Kyle Stowers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1622 |
| Leo Jiménez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3385 |
| Owen Caissie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0256 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine | 1+ Hits | 60.1% | 53.5% | +6.6pp | WON |
| Griffin Conine | 1+ Hits | 55.7% | 50.0% | +5.7pp | WON |
| Kyle Stowers | 1+ Hits | 59.7% | 54.2% | +5.5pp | WON |
| Joe Mack | 1+ Hits | 55.4% | 51.8% | +3.6pp | WON |
| Griffin Conine | 2+ Hits | 17.2% | 14.7% | +2.6pp | WON |