Phillies.
The year-round intelligence desk for Philadelphia.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
32
Executable
32
archive-backed
Resolved
32
Won
18
Lost
14
Win rate
56.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2511Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=3264.5%model56.3%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 9 | 9 | 5 | 56% | 0.2424 |
| Alec Bohm | 8 | 8 | 4 | 50% | 0.2777 |
| Bryce Harper | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0.2055 |
| Luis Arraez | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3288 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3706 |
| Bryson Stott | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1246 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1360 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 62.5% | +3.9pp | WON |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1+ Hits | 60.1% | 64.0% | -3.8pp | — |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 67.2% | -3.6pp | — |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 61.1% | 64.6% | -3.6pp | — |
| Bryce Harper | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 61.2% | +3.4pp | WON |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 64.4% | 62.1% | +2.3pp | WON |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 63.6% | -2.0pp | — |
| Bryson Stott | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 62.7% | +2.0pp | WON |
| Alec Bohm | 1+ Hits | 65.8% | 67.5% | -1.7pp | — |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 60.8% | 62.2% | -1.4pp | — |