Phillies.
The year-round intelligence desk for Philadelphia.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
56
Executable
56
archive-backed
Resolved
56
Won
29
Lost
27
Win rate
51.8%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2573Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=122.9%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=5564.4%model52.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 14 | 14 | 9 | 64% | 0.2329 |
| Alec Bohm | 13 | 13 | 6 | 46% | 0.2855 |
| Trea Turner | 13 | 13 | 8 | 62% | 0.2298 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0.1721 |
| Luis Arraez | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 0.2739 |
| Bryson Stott | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3057 |
| Brandon Marsh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.4185 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3706 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 62.5% | +3.9pp | WON |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1+ Hits | 60.1% | 64.0% | -3.8pp | — |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 67.2% | -3.6pp | — |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 61.1% | 64.6% | -3.6pp | — |
| Bryce Harper | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 61.2% | +3.4pp | WON |
| Kyle Schwarber | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 58.7% | +3.0pp | WON |
| Alec Bohm | 1+ Hits | 65.9% | 63.3% | +2.7pp | WON |
| Trea Turner | 1+ Hits | 64.4% | 62.1% | +2.3pp | WON |
| Alec Bohm | 1+ Hits | 65.8% | 63.7% | +2.1pp | WON |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 63.6% | -2.0pp | — |