Phillies.
The year-round intelligence desk for Philadelphia.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
5
Executable
5
archive-backed
Resolved
5
Won
1
Lost
4
Win rate
20.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2840Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=122.9%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=463.3%model25.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.1943 |
| Brandon Marsh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.4185 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 58.7% | +3.0pp | WON |