Rays.
The year-round intelligence desk for Tampa Bay.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
32
Executable
32
archive-backed
Resolved
32
Won
22
Lost
10
Win rate
68.8%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2163Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=259.1%model50.0%realised
- 60–70%n=3063.5%model70.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | 12 | 12 | 10 | 83% | 0.1795 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 8 | 8 | 5 | 63% | 0.2337 |
| Yandy Díaz | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2237 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2276 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3683 |
| Liam Hicks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1373 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 1+ Hits | 63.2% | 68.5% | -5.3pp | — |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 1+ Hits | 59.2% | 63.8% | -4.6pp | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 60.6% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Yandy Díaz | 1+ Hits | 64.8% | 67.1% | -2.4pp | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 60.8% | +2.2pp | WON |
| Jonny DeLuca | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 63.1% | -1.8pp | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 65.8% | 64.3% | +1.4pp | WON |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 63.1% | -0.9pp | — |
| Junior Caminero | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 62.8% | +0.9pp | WON |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 62.0% | +0.9pp | WON |