Rays.
The year-round intelligence desk for Tampa Bay.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
12
Executable
12
archive-backed
Resolved
12
Won
5
Lost
7
Win rate
41.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.3017Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=149.7%model100.0%realised
- 50–60%n=655.3%model66.7%realised
- 60–70%n=562.3%model0.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Palacios | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | 0.3143 |
| Nick Fortes | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.3005 |
| Taylor Walls | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2790 |
| Cedric Mullins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1894 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.2527 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3902 |
| Jorge Mateo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3720 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins | 1+ Hits | 56.5% | 51.6% | +4.8pp | WON |
| Taylor Walls | 1+ Hits | 53.3% | 48.8% | +4.5pp | WON |
| Nick Fortes | 1+ Hits | 56.4% | 52.5% | +3.9pp | WON |
| Richie Palacios | 1+ Hits | 54.5% | 51.2% | +3.4pp | WON |
| Hunter Feduccia | 1+ Hits | 49.7% | 46.4% | +3.3pp | WON |