Rays.
The year-round intelligence desk for Tampa Bay.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
10
Executable
10
archive-backed
Resolved
10
Won
7
Lost
3
Win rate
70.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2180Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=159.0%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=962.8%model66.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3052 |
| Junior Caminero | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1428 |
| Yandy Díaz | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2225 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1680 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 1+ Hits | 63.2% | 68.5% | -5.3pp | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 60.6% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 62.4% | 63.3% | -0.8pp | — |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1+ Hits | 62.6% | 63.0% | -0.4pp | — |