Yankees.
The year-round intelligence desk for New York.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
27
Executable
27
archive-backed
Resolved
27
Won
16
Lost
11
Win rate
59.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2354Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=259.7%model0.0%realised
- 60–70%n=2563.4%model64.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 9 | 9 | 6 | 67% | 0.2209 |
| Ben Rice | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0.1944 |
| Luis García Jr. | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2039 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3112 |
| Aaron Judge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3970 |
| George Lombard Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1269 |
| Spencer Jones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3569 |
| Trent Grisham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3857 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 1+ Hits | 67.8% | 62.8% | +5.0pp | WON |
| George Lombard Jr. | 1+ Hits | 64.4% | 60.2% | +4.2pp | WON |
| Ben Rice | 1+ Hits | 60.5% | 64.1% | -3.6pp | — |
| Cody Bellinger | 1+ Hits | 65.2% | 62.4% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Ben Rice | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 61.0% | +2.6pp | WON |
| Cody Bellinger | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 61.0% | +2.4pp | WON |
| Luis García Jr. | 1+ Hits | 64.4% | 62.1% | +2.3pp | WON |
| Aaron Judge | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 65.0% | -2.0pp | — |
| Cody Bellinger | 1+ Hits | 59.7% | 61.6% | -1.9pp | — |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1+ Hits | 63.8% | 62.3% | +1.5pp | WON |