Yankees.
The year-round intelligence desk for New York.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
11
Executable
11
archive-backed
Resolved
11
Won
5
Lost
6
Win rate
45.5%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2486Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=148.7%model0.0%realised
- 50–60%n=657.0%model33.3%realised
- 60–70%n=460.9%model75.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Caballero | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.2789 |
| Austin Wells | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.1961 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1575 |
| Trent Grisham | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3488 |
| George Lombard Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3386 |
| Heliot Ramos | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1549 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Wells | 1+ Hits | 60.6% | 48.6% | +12.0pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 59.3% | 49.0% | +10.3pp | WON |
| José Caballero | 1+ Hits | 54.9% | 46.9% | +8.0pp | WON |
| Heliot Ramos | 1+ Hits | 60.6% | 54.5% | +6.2pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 55.4% | +5.9pp | WON |