Yankees.
The year-round intelligence desk for New York.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
9
Executable
9
archive-backed
Resolved
9
Won
4
Lost
5
Win rate
44.4%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2694Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=159.7%model0.0%realised
- 60–70%n=862.5%model50.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2143 |
| Cody Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3035 |
| Luis García Jr. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2425 |
| Trent Grisham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3857 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 1+ Hits | 59.7% | 61.6% | -1.9pp | — |
| Ben Rice | 1+ Hits | 60.4% | 61.7% | -1.3pp | — |
| Ben Rice | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 60.1% | +1.1pp | WON |
| Luis García Jr. | 1+ Hits | 60.9% | 61.6% | -0.6pp | — |
| Ben Rice | 1+ Hits | 64.3% | 63.9% | +0.4pp | WON |