Yankees.
The year-round intelligence desk for New York.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
7
Executable
7
archive-backed
Resolved
7
Won
3
Lost
4
Win rate
42.9%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2590Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=457.5%model25.0%realised
- 60–70%n=360.9%model66.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1575 |
| José Caballero | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3167 |
| Austin Wells | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1554 |
| George Lombard Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3386 |
| Trent Grisham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3706 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Wells | 1+ Hits | 60.6% | 48.6% | +12.0pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 59.3% | 49.0% | +10.3pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 55.4% | +5.9pp | WON |