Yankees.
The year-round intelligence desk for New York.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
60
Executable
60
archive-backed
Resolved
60
Won
36
Lost
24
Win rate
60.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2319Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=148.7%model0.0%realised
- 50–60%n=1257.2%model33.3%realised
- 60–70%n=4763.6%model68.1%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | 15 | 15 | 11 | 73% | 0.2005 |
| Ben Rice | 13 | 13 | 10 | 77% | 0.1933 |
| José Caballero | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 0.2718 |
| Luis García Jr. | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0.2396 |
| Spencer Jones | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1999 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1641 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3112 |
| Trent Grisham | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.3611 |
| Aaron Judge | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.4086 |
| Austin Wells | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.1961 |
| George Lombard Jr. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2328 |
| Amed Rosario | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.2679 |
| Heliot Ramos | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1549 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4300 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Wells | 1+ Hits | 60.6% | 48.6% | +12.0pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 59.3% | 49.0% | +10.3pp | WON |
| José Caballero | 1+ Hits | 54.9% | 46.9% | +8.0pp | WON |
| Heliot Ramos | 1+ Hits | 60.6% | 54.5% | +6.2pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 55.4% | +5.9pp | WON |
| José Caballero | 1+ Hits | 57.4% | 52.2% | +5.2pp | WON |
| Cody Bellinger | 1+ Hits | 67.8% | 62.8% | +5.0pp | WON |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1+ Hits | 57.9% | 53.3% | +4.6pp | WON |
| George Lombard Jr. | 1+ Hits | 64.4% | 60.2% | +4.2pp | WON |
| Ben Rice | 1+ Hits | 64.4% | 68.1% | -3.7pp | — |