Brewers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Milwaukee.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
6
Executable
6
archive-backed
Resolved
6
Won
3
Lost
3
Win rate
50.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1970Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=116.0%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=452.6%model50.0%realised
- 60–70%n=160.5%model100.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Hamilton | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 0.2051 |
| Jake Bauers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1561 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Hamilton | 1+ Hits | 52.3% | 45.5% | +6.7pp | WON |
| Jake Bauers | 1+ Hits | 60.5% | 55.0% | +5.5pp | WON |
| David Hamilton | 1+ Hits | 53.0% | 48.4% | +4.6pp | WON |