Brewers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Milwaukee.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
38
Executable
38
archive-backed
Resolved
38
Won
24
Lost
14
Win rate
63.2%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2271Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=359.2%model33.3%realised
- 60–70%n=3564.5%model65.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 10 | 10 | 8 | 80% | 0.1833 |
| Brice Turang | 9 | 9 | 5 | 56% | 0.2497 |
| Jackson Chourio | 9 | 9 | 7 | 78% | 0.1784 |
| Joey Ortiz | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2440 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.4279 |
| Christian Yelich | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3658 |
| Luis Lara | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2466 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1327 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Lara | 1+ Hits | 59.1% | 63.0% | -4.0pp | — |
| Brice Turang | 1+ Hits | 65.5% | 62.2% | +3.3pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 66.8% | -3.2pp | — |
| Christian Yelich | 1+ Hits | 59.3% | 62.5% | -3.2pp | — |
| Brice Turang | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 66.1% | -3.2pp | — |
| William Contreras | 1+ Hits | 65.4% | 62.6% | +2.8pp | WON |
| William Contreras | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 60.7% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Brice Turang | 1+ Hits | 64.8% | 62.4% | +2.5pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 68.9% | 66.6% | +2.3pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 69.6% | 67.4% | +2.2pp | WON |