Brewers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Milwaukee.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
14
Executable
14
archive-backed
Resolved
14
Won
8
Lost
6
Win rate
57.1%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2432Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=1464.5%model57.1%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | 7 | 7 | 5 | 71% | 0.2013 |
| William Contreras | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0.2372 |
| Brice Turang | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.4053 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 66.8% | -3.2pp | — |
| William Contreras | 1+ Hits | 65.4% | 62.6% | +2.8pp | WON |
| William Contreras | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 60.7% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 68.9% | 66.6% | +2.3pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 65.7% | 63.6% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 65.4% | 63.7% | +1.8pp | WON |