Brewers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Milwaukee.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
5
Executable
5
archive-backed
Resolved
5
Won
3
Lost
2
Win rate
60.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2375Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=564.5%model60.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2201 |
| William Contreras | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2636 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 1+ Hits | 63.5% | 60.7% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 65.7% | 63.6% | +2.1pp | WON |
| Jackson Chourio | 1+ Hits | 65.4% | 63.7% | +1.8pp | WON |